Update: 2007 PGA Tour Driving Distance Watch, Week 20

A few readers have wondered why this site no longer offers weekly driving distance updates. Frankly, sheer laziness drove the decision. Though my lazy attitude stems from a sixth sense that the governing bodies are so remarkably impotent and prone to spin that tracking the numbers is pointless.

One reader inquired as to why the numbers were down this year and how they compared to 2006 after twenty weeks of PGA Tour play.

Well at this point last year, the Tour average was 289.2 yards and 920 drives of 350 yards or more had been struck.

2007's are down significantly: 284.7 yards and 785 drives of 350 yards or more.

There have been 17 drives over 400 yards, the same total as 2006 at this point.

Eight players are averaging over 300 yards in 2007 (18 at this point last year).

Bubba Watson was leading at 321.2 yards last year, and leads again in 2007 at 314.7 yards off the tee.

While many conclusions can be drawn from this data--narrowed fairways have finally strangled the life out of the game or soggy conditions continue to slow things down--I believe there is little doubt that the players are simply working out less!

Yes, the vaunted workout programs we've heard about must not be what they used to be.

After all, we heard that the distance spike since 1999 was not caused by the ball or forgiving launch-monitor fit drivers. No, it was those superathletes like Tim Herron and Jeff Quinney and their Jack LaLanne workout programs.

So now that the numbers have dropped, I suppose no one will dare suggest that the equipment isn't as good as it was in 2005? Or that perhaps guys were actually using illegal drivers a few years ago? 

No, they're just slacking in the weight room. And you know what that means? No need for performance enhancing drug testing!

Though I do promise to check the numbers more regularly since last week's AT&T Classic caused a 1-yard spike in the average and tacked on 130 drives of 350 yards or more.

Comments

[Jeff]

This is one of the coldest springs on record, it's not warm enough to see what an X ball can really do. This past Friday it was 58 degrees here in Baltimore, 20 degrees below normal.

[Chuck]

I guess we'll also have to be on the lookout for the pros with new equipment deals claiming how much yardage they picked up since going to their new ball, or their new driver.

If only Peter Kostis were here to make sense of all of this for us!

[86general]

Well, since everyone is so convinced that the ball is the root of everything, there must have been a stealth roll-back in the ball. Voluntarily. By all the ball makers.

[Barry]

The only way anyone can use PGA driving stats as a reliable measure is to know the variables & constants involved:

*Are the same holes measured wach year?
*Do stats take into account course changes (addition of rough, bunkering,etc.) or conditions?

86, this is just my humble opinion, but it seems we're just seeing a predictable correction as course superintendents come to grips with the 300 yard drive as a regular occurence. The results are not always pretty (see Masters, 2007)...

[86general]

I agree that you can't make too much of PGA Tour driving statistics. There are too many variables affecting the data, such as the club chosen by the player, the amount of run in the fairway, grade, and as you mentioned, holes measured from year to year.

I think the suggestion that it's due to abnormally cold weather this year makes alot of sense, too.

And I suppose if the tour or the superintendents wanted to, they could set up the fairway contours, etc., to discourage long bombs.

I think the important point is that we've got a couple of years where driving distance has flatlined...it seems the distance boom is over.

[Michael]

"...it seems the distance boom is over."

Sorry, I'm not even close to being ready to drink that kool-aid, not when you have 130 drives over 350 yards in one tournament.

Seems that every time I tune into a tournament, I see guys flying bunkers 300-330 yards from the tee. I know that's anecdotal evidence at best, but take a look at the driving distances from the Nationwide Tour this year. Those guys, bigger, younger, and stronger than PGA Tour guys are tearing it up; their driving distance average shows a significant spike this year.

My hunch is that there is some data manipulation going on. I don't have access to the Shotlink data, but I'd be willing to wager that it shows that the holes being selected for official driving distance measurements are those on which the majority of the field uses something other than a driver. I'd also be willing to bet that if Shotlink data was used to compute a driving distance average using ONLY drivers, there would be a distance spike that would grind the "line in the sand" into dust and force the USGA into some sort of action.

[86general]

This distance issue is now pretty much like political debates. People believe what they believe. But I think you have to approach this beginning with a look at the facts, not from a reaction to something you see from a few guys on TV.

Granted, it's not easy to always be sure of what, exactly, consitute "the facts," but you can't simply dismiss data because they don't agree with your preconceived idea of what's going on. Nobody has any trouble accepting PGA Tour driving distance statistics to illustrate, for example, that driving distances increased from the mid 260 range to the mid 280 range between the mid 80s and mid 90s. But hey, if driving distance stats are so unreliable, how do we know they weren't under-reporting in the 80s, and over-reporting now? Maybe it's all just a big conspiracy, like the black helicopters, Roswell alien autopsies, and the Apollo moon mission fabrications.

Yes, data are imperfect. But would the method of data collection change markedly in one year? Isn't it reasonable to assume that the methods have probably been at least fairly consistent over the last, say, 8-10 years? I think it is. So, even though the methods are imperfect, there is still probably some value in comparing year to year.

Year to year comparisons show that there was a major spike in distance with the advent of ProV1-type golf balls. The average distance improved year to year for 4-5 years, as drivers became bigger and more players became optimized on launch monitors. In the last couple of years, things have leveled off.

As for the Nationwide tour, I just went to their site. Below are data from 07-02, listed as longest-shortest/median driving distances. In other words, the longest player's average, the shortest player's average, then the guy midway between them. Here they are:

07: 320-260/292
06: 315-264/290
05: 334-260/295
04: 331-265/290
03: 340-266/294
02: 328-262/288

The five yard "spike" in the top driving distance between this year and last year is offset by the downward spike of the low guy...looking back 6 years there's no obvious upward trend.

One is free to believe whatever they want. If you want to take one Camillo Villegas drive of 360 (on a hole where you don't know the wind, the grade, the hardness of the fairway, or even if the TV people have the yardage right at all!) and believe that driving distances are still increasing significantly, that's your prerogative, and no amount of logic will dissuade you from your belief.

I prefer to interpret the numbers, with appropriate caution.

[Michael]

Your interpretation of the numbers is just that: your interpretation. You're entitled to your opinion, but I must say that your statement that those who disagree with your interpretation cannot be persuaded by logic, is not only insulting, but smacks of hypocrisy. Remember, your interpretation of the data you quote is just that: your interpretation.