Handicapping Time For The 2015 Open Championship
I’ve made my usual trip to Ladbrokes and William Hill storefronts after much consternation and study, though the pricing this year made wagers a tad more simple than recent Open Championships.
Here’s the up-to-the-minute spreadsheet of the various betting entities here in the UK where it’s perfectly legal to wager on the golf.
As for The Old Course, I talked with Todd Lewis about how the changes look and how it's playing. It's hard to imagine that a slightly greener course makes it much easier for those with less experience here, as it's the wind and angles players need to understand how to deal with. Which is why, as you'll see below, I am leaning towards good links players and those with good experiences here.
Heading in I have each way wagers that pay top 6 finishes on the following:
Rickie Fowler 20-1 - Placed that just an hour before his Scottish Open win.
Branden Grace 40-1 - Tremendous record on the Old Course
Phil Mickelson 33-1 - Will reliably hang around and hope the putter gets hot.
Marc Warren 150-1 - Final round 64 in the Scottish Open almost got him to a playoff
Geoff Ogilvy 200-1 - Prepped at Barnbougle, loves the Old Course, solid week at Chambers Bay.
Few other prices were very enticing, though Justin Rose's pre-tournament confidence (Mark Tallentire reports for The Guardian) in his track record over the Old Course and the state of the game makes him an attractive 25-1 option, despite his Open Championship record as a pro.
I'm also going to check in on some missed-cut opportunities, as they've been good to me in the past. But as of yesterday the various entities weren't offering anything on that front.
For some other ideas, the tour two sites (go figure) offer some good options. EuropeanTour.com's five players to keep an eye on is here, and PGATour.com's usual group offers their views.
Geoff
**Forgot to mention the luck of the draw. Will the late-early or early-late times be affected more?
The current forecast calls for light winds Thursday morning gradually picking up as the day goes, with gusts up to 25 mph.
Friday's forecast is dire, with heavy rain forecasted overnight and into early play. Winds are expected to strengthen as the day goes with a direction change throughout the day. Gusts of 40 mph are possible, "particularly late afternoon and evening."
Good luck with that!
Reader Comments (11)
13/8 for Tiger to miss the cut Geoff ;-)
There have only been 2 big upsets since the War, one was Kel Neagle who actually won 70+ tournaments worldwide, and the other was John Daly who had the talent, but not the mind, to win 6+ majors.
In fact, you could make the argument that since 1895(!) one of the top 3 players in the world has won two-thirds of the opens there.
Louis O was a surprise in the last one, but he plays so good when he's on and I think he has more majors in him.
So any value would be in that sort of player, who maybe isn't well known but can strike it beautifully and go low.
:
I like:
Bubba at 40-1
Charl at 80-1 (though has he been playing well or not?)
Danny Lee and Ernie as real fliers at 150ish-1
and among the top guys, I like Rose and Spieth, though Jordan's odds are too low
I'll know in a few days if that's a good thing or not. :)
Happy pickin', all!
* Contains 2 guys Geoff has mentioned above.
Slurpity Durpity