Oosty, Casey And Round Three Of The Open Championship

The Home Hole after Saturday play (click to enlarge)I'm at a loss right now to describe how good the play of Oosthuizen and Casey was today, especially since some of their birdies came when the wind was up and the temperature the coolest it had been all week. The hole locations were fairly forgiving on the front but the back nine offered few opportunities and it showed.

As I told someone earlier this week, Oosty's two missed cuts, French Open WD and MC record in the Open Championship screamed -15 through three rounds. That said, I'm glad my money is on Casey, Kaymer (80-1 each way!) and Westwood. The Old Course only lets Hall of Famers in the door just like Pebble Be...oh right.

Your predictions please.

Comments

[Tim in Hoylake]

With Ernie whispering in his ear Friday night and no doubt tonight, I think Oosty has a decent chance of holding on to his lead. Whereas the conditions are benign or at least wet and not too windy, a 71 is certainly attainable. That puts him at -16 (a 68 puts him at -19 - better than Tiger's record...). For anyone to catch him, Casey would have to shoot another 67 (possible), or someone else go superlow (not very possible). So it's Casey to chase, or Oosty to collapse if we're not going to see a very dull end. I predict Oosty to win -17 to Casey's -14. A bit of a yawn, but interested in hearing Geoff's war stories from the week when he returns.

[Lip Out]

There's something about the way Casey carries himself that makes me think he'll collapse under the weight of the moment. Oosty's going to be tough to beat, but if anybody will my money is on Kaymer.

[Hawkeye]

For Oosthuizen, it will be about the putting. His swing and his ballstriking is very impressive, but he did hole a bunch of putts around ten feet today to shoot his 69, and those putts will be an awful lot tougher tomorrow. Somebody out of the Westwood-Kaymer-Stenson crowd is bound to get hot tomorrow and Casey is playing the golf of his life, so if Oosty gets the slightest bit tentative we'll be in for a mightily interesting conclusion. At the moment, though, my money is on Oosthuizen - he's a superb ballstriker who's clearly in the zone. I think he can stay there for one more day.

[Minefats]

I really like Kaymer, but I think he's too far back. Lip out is right, if anyone is hoping for Casey to step it up take it to the South African, don't hold your breath. Casey has no more history of holding up under pressure (he's done nothing but wilt) than what we know of this Oosty fellow. I'd be different if there were quite a few guys within a few shots, but after Casey, it's just too far back. Let's face it, this guy won the tournament on Friday when he played a completly different course (benign) than everyone else. This proven by the fact of where Calc was after his round then. Sure Oosty played solid today (and Calc didn't), but this thing was won on Friday. He can play mediocre tomorrow and would still stand a very good chance of winning. Snooze fest tomorrow....

[old course]

minefats and lip out to you both i respectfully say you don't know jack squat about golf and the golfers who play. casey's clutch play and putting at multiple ryder cups speaks volumes about his heart. do you remember oosty's collapse at doral earlier this year? tune in tomorrow!

[d.b.cooper]

I wonder what the odds were on Oosty pre-tournament?

If he wins, I hope we don't constantly here that he got a big break on Friday.

He played great today.

[Tim in Hoylake]

Db - i know he was 33-1 after round 1, and 2-1 after round 2. Probably in the 100-1 crowd or the 'rest of the field' category before it all started, but has to be odds on now.

[fred jones]

Westwood is due. He'll shoot 67 & reel in those ahead of him.

[SGarrett]

Minefats wrote: "Let's face it, [Oosthuizen] won the tournament on Friday when he played a completly different course (benign) than everyone else."

two comments...

First, Oosthuizen has NOT YET won the tournament. Anyone who has watched much golf knows that many a saturday lead does not survive until 18 on Sunday.

Second, Oosthuizen does not have a big lead simply because of his performance on Friday.

On Thursday, (playing in the "bad half" of the draw) he shot 65 - only two strokes higher than McIroy's incredible 63 (playing in the "good half"). That has certainly helped put him where he is today.

On Friday, (playing in the good half of the draw) he shot 67, the low round of the day.

Today, he shot 69, only two shots off the best rounds of the day (67) shot by Casey and Stenson.

All three days - regardless of what part of the draw he got - he has bested the field average by 3.3 - 5.8 strokes.

THAT - not one day - is why Oosty is now in a great position to win.

One good day doesn't cut it. Just ask Mcilroy or Calc.

It will be fun to see if he chokes tomorrow, or if he continues to play incredible golf.

And, keep in mind, Tiger's all-time Open Championship record of 269 (-19) "could" be broken tomorrow if he shoots 67 or tied with a 68. And, that definitely takes more than one better-weather draw on a Friday.

[fred jones]

and while we are on the subject.....Tiger will shoot 64 & scare everybody!

[Tommy Naccarato]

Ossty is doing the one thing I think helps play good on the Old Course: He's having fun. Or at least it would seem like it!

How cool was Miguel Jimenez's recovery shot off of the wall?!?!?!?!

[Tommy Naccarato]

BTW, when this thing is over, its just going to be like the Olympics or World Cup for others--you don't want it to end; depression and a sense of abandonment sets in!

My love, admiration, devotion, obsession, EVERYTHING with the Old Course continues. It just doesn't get any better...

[thusgone]

+1, tommy.

[Lindsay Addie]

Tiger will shot a stunning 57 and blitz the lot of them..........




Nah, just fooling. It's Oosty's to lose now but I'll go for Casey.

[Lindsay Addie]

Oops typo "Tiger will shoot".......

[dgs]

"My love, admiration, devotion, obsession, EVERYTHING with the Old Course continues. It just doesn't get any better... "

Tommy - we should go there together before we get too damned old. St Andrews was pretty much my second home throughout my teens, and I deeply love the place.

Doubt if they'd still let us play for a 10/- (ten shillings) 1960's green fee???????? :-) :-)

[Minefats]

old course wrote:

"minefats and lip out to you both i respectfully say you don't know jack squat about golf and the golfers who play. casey's clutch play and putting at multiple ryder cups speaks volumes about his heart. do you remember oosty's collapse at doral earlier this year? tune in tomorrow!"

Oh, silly me. Ryder Cup performances mean something here, I guess. Surely that means Colin Montgomerie has won one of these.....er, I guess not. But thanks for the comment!

[Old Hornet]

Everything about St. Andrews is magic ! Tommy, suggest you allow time to walk all 18 on the day of rest before you tee it up, especially if it's the first visit. It makes the experience all the more memorable, and no matter what time it is, there's always eyes on 17 & 18 to watch you finish.

Have to go with the odds on Oosty to win, I think Kaymer makes a run at him but falls just short. Imagine what the ghost of Walter Hagen might be saying tonight: "They're all in bed early, but they're not sleeping".

[Tommy Naccarato]

dgs,
Agreed!

Emailing with Geoff last night, his response was:

"Pretty tired, but going to go walk around town a little and get a beer. It's amazing." (My suggestion to him was Featherie & Firkin (if its still there) and their magic elixir called Dogboulter!)

The town does that to all of us. For those of you that have never been there, I cannot emphasize enough that when you do make it there, do so without being on some insane itinerary that only allows you to experience the town for a few two or three days. It is imperative that you spend at least a week if not more. Become part of the fabric of the town, the people, the lifestyle. Go up on Market Street in the morning and have coffee and cake (me no cake!) and see the people in the town function while actually seeing people with clubs in hand scurry down near the entrance into town. As Seve says,"They are all selling Golf there. You want to be part of it and they want to be part of you."

Golf in St. Andrews is the universal language spoken. May we all get to experience it as many times possible; I think it makes us all better people.

Hornet,
I was fortunate to spend some time in the town in 1996, getting there on June 23rd and not leaving until July 19th. I did not want to leave.

[Ky Laffoon's Ghost]

Oosty will hang on. He showed no sign of cracking today from the little I saw. I predicted a couple of 70s would do it and a 71 from him will require 66 from Casey. Too much ground to cover. Personally I think it is a great leader board.

@Fred: Only if he lets the Scotty out of the closet.

When I do a sabbatical at the University of St. Andrews you are all welcome to come visit.

[Del the Funk]

Tommy, I have had serious thoughts of doing exactly that....your comments only heighten the sense of urgency. Thanks. Best place to stay for 10-12 days?

[d.b.cooper]

I think the winner comes out of the final group and I reckon Louis to have about a 60% chance and Casey to have about a 40% chance.

[Used to be former S & T Convert]

Oosty's move is much tighter than Dustin Johnson's, he wins.

[Chuck]

Whatever the outcome, I think you made a couple of very good bets in Casey and Kaymer, Geoff.

[Chuck]

btw, does anybody else agree with me on the remarkable factoid that Henrik Stenson is now the best interview in all of golf, all the more remarkable since English is not his first language?

[Ky Laffoon's Ghost]

Good catch, Chuck. The ladies think he looks good in his BVDs, too.

[Mr. T]

Chuck and Ky Laffoon's Ghost are on to it. i like Henrik Stenson to win--don't forget his caddie has already won it at The Old Course....

[d.b.cooper]

Let me guess, Mr. T.

Fanny's unfathomable knowledge of TOC propelled Faldo to triumph in '90 and will do the same for Stenson tomorrow.

That it?

[Tighthead]

I wish there were a few more horses in the race. I pick Casey, but I thought Oosty would collapse today.

I wonder if part of Casey's plan is some subtle gamesmanship tomorrow? That is at least something to watch for, unless they keep cutting away to Tiger.

[d.b.cooper]

Agreed, expect Casey to try to get into Oosty's head very early.

The first 3 to 4 holes will be super important for Oosty.

[Tighthead]

db - they will be important for me as well.

If Ooosty goes 6-7 up on the field I may regret getting up before 6 am on a Sunday to listen to deal with the ESPN coverage.

The radio stuff I have had access to has been first rate - catching the early rounds as I drift off to sleep is quite nifty.

[Wisconsin Reader]

Who cares who wins? . . . It is all about who will be the low American player? . . . These firm and fast courses just don't favor our boys . . . All that bouncy stuff takes away our carry distance advantage. . . These slow greens take away our fast greens advantage. . . It is going to be just like that Pebble Beach fiasco when the guy from - what - Ireland - kept hitting his drives in the fairway and his next shots on the greens . . . What an idiotic and boring way to play golf . . . All those non American types need to buy Phil's short game DVD and see how the game is supposed to be played. . . They need to sign up with our "big 3" putting coach geniuses (Utley, Pelz, Stockton) so they can miss more greens and still make pars and learn how to 2 putt from 75 feet after lousy iron shots. . .

I have already heard that Whistling Straights is going be playing firm and fast too - What's next, Augusta National? . . . We need to quit this "a little brown is OK" crusade - or if not at least tighten the immigration rules for our 3 major championships.

[longtimegolffan]

old course - I don't think Louis Oosthuizen played at Doral this year. Are you perhaps thinking of Charl Schwartzel?

[d.b.cooper]

Latest odds to win at Ladbroke's.

Oosty 4/5
Casey 5/2
Westwood and Kaymer 14/1
Stenson 20/1
Canizares 40/1
Woods, McIlroy and Johnson 50/1
Goosen and Garcia 66/1

[Tommy Naccarato]

Del The Funk,
I found the perfect place, for me at least, the perfect place which to throw down during my time there, and that was the Yorkston House up on Argyle Street. It wasn't all that far to go walk into town or stumble home from any of the pubs on Market!

Price back in 1996 dollars was £25 a night; shared loo and a nice comfortable bed. Every morning, breakfast was served, and Mr. & Mrs. MacKenzie's prepared a mean bacon & eggs, toast with tea or coffee.

These people always seemed to want to make sure my needs were taken care of, if I was late coming in form golf in the morning, they always made sure my breakfast was warmed and waiting if I forewarned them. Great people.

http://www.yorkstonguesthouse.co.uk/index.html

[Tommy Naccarato]

Wisconsin Reader,
Your joking right? Of course you are!

[Ky Laffoon's Ghost]

WR is not joking to some people. From an email earlier this evening from a friend who lives in a nearby state. Overheard in the grill room of a well known golf course this afternoon; read and appreciate the Ugly American:

1. Don't see many Merkin flags on that damn leader board. Stupid
tournament anyway.

2. Ah don't much care for that golf course. No trees. Shee-it! Did you
see that the 7th and 11th holes actually CROSS each other!? How f*cked
up is that?!

[Russell]

Complete disinterest three days ago, now he's the new "Oosty" by default?! Presumably Peter Oosterhuis is mindlessly chuckling like Dr Hibbert about this.

If "Oosty" needs a sobering experience he should probably check his Wikipedia stats too see how many of you are really nickname-eligible admirers -
http://stats.grok.se/en/201007/Louis_Oosthuizen

[MarkP]

Tommy,

The Featherie and Firkin was part of a (rather good) chain. Firkin pubs selling Firkin beer (geddit?) Sadly long gone.

[Tommy Naccarato]

Mark,
Sad to hear that. A great place, where, I got to enjoy watching my first "football" match between England and Spain* during the Eurocup in 1996. That Dogboulter ale was deadly. One night I wandered back to the Yorkston where I was staying, howling like a dog in the rain!

Woof! Woof!

I almost lose my life that day when the Featherie & Firkin, loaded with well-inebriated Scotsmen, heard me cheer for England. You see at the time I thought they would be cheering for Mother England. Stupid me! I completely forgot history! (Freedom! Freedom!)