Handicapping Time For The 2015 Open Championship

I’ve made my usual trip to Ladbrokes and William Hill storefronts after much consternation and study, though the pricing this year made wagers a tad more simple than recent Open Championships.

Here’s the up-to-the-minute spreadsheet of the various betting entities here in the UK where it’s perfectly legal to wager on the golf.

As for The Old Course, I talked with Todd Lewis about how the changes look and how it's playing. It's hard to imagine that a slightly greener course makes it much easier for those with less experience here, as it's the wind and angles players need to understand how to deal with. Which is why, as you'll see below, I am leaning towards good links players and those with good experiences here.

Heading in I have each way wagers that pay top 6 finishes on the following:

Rickie Fowler 20-1 - Placed that just an hour before his Scottish Open win.

Branden Grace 40-1 - Tremendous record on the Old Course

Phil Mickelson 33-1 - Will reliably hang around and hope the putter gets hot.

Marc Warren 150-1 - Final round 64 in the Scottish Open almost got him to a playoff

Geoff Ogilvy 200-1 - Prepped at Barnbougle, loves the Old Course, solid week at Chambers Bay.

Few other prices were very enticing, though Justin Rose's pre-tournament confidence (Mark Tallentire reports for The Guardian) in his track record over the Old Course and the state of the game makes him an attractive 25-1 option, despite his Open Championship record as a pro.

I'm also going to check in on some missed-cut opportunities, as they've been good to me in the past. But as of yesterday the various entities weren't offering anything on that front.

For some other ideas, the tour two sites (go figure) offer some good options. EuropeanTour.com's five players to keep an eye on is here, and PGATour.com's usual group offers their views.

Update on Wednesday, July 15, 2015 at 05:02 AM by Geoff

**Forgot to mention the luck of the draw. Will the late-early or early-late times be affected more?

The current forecast calls for light winds Thursday morning gradually picking up as the day goes, with gusts up to 25 mph.

Friday's forecast is dire, with heavy rain forecasted overnight and into early play. Winds are expected to strengthen as the day goes with a direction change throughout the day. Gusts of 40 mph are possible, "particularly late afternoon and evening."

Good luck with that!

Rory: Want To Chase History? Be More Careful

Good stuff from the Toronto Sun's Jon McCarthy who takes the unpopular view that Rory McIlroy, burgeoning golf legend, brand and vital entity to the international game, needs to stop being told it's okay to play intense football games in his spare time.

He writes:

“Absolutely,” said Knox “You've got to enjoy your life and golf is just a hobby for me.”

Exactly.

Wait. What? Golf is just a hobby?

So Russell Knox is obviously damn good at his hobbies. If golf is just a hobby for McIlroy, too, then he should do whatever his heart desires. Kickabouts. Kick arounds. Sleep in past his Ryder Cup tee time. Change golf club brands when his game is on fire.

McIlroy's injury prevented him from missing the once-every-five years champions dinner last night at St. Andrews. Oh, and defending his title captured last year at Hoylake.

Update on Wednesday, July 15, 2015 at 03:44 PM by Geoff

**Rory's already back in the gym, reports Belfast Live.

Video: A Visit To Old Tom's Shop

The Links Trust has reimagined the historic Old Tom Morris shop at St. Andrews with a new clothing line and many of the shop design features exposed after years of layer-upon-decorating layer.

The storefront today looks eerily close to what it looked like in his day:

The result is very special place to go for worshippers of Old Tom. Getting to walk on the original stone floors of his most prominent and final shop is an honor. But to see markings left over from the club making days is a bit like stumbling on an archaelogical site:

And it's irresistable to not at least touch the dinged up wood counter top where Old Tom and his artisans finished clubs over looking the 18th green that he created (a view that had long been mysteriously covered by recent shop lessees). The playground, workspace and house of worship for the first and most important Golf God. (Don't forget all of the storied visitors who walked those floors too, from Bobby Jones to A.W. Tillinghast to C.B. Macdonald, for starters).

For a Golf Channel segment this week, I was joined by Laurie Watson of the Links Trust and Roger McStravick, author of a beautiful new book on Old Tom Morris. We chatted about the significance of the shop as a place to remember the man who is more responsible for shaping the game than any single figure in our sport.

Video: Old Course Fifteenth And Sixteenth Hole Flyovers

"Cartgate (in)" at the Old Course looks narrower than ever to me and the green is one of the most intricate on the course. Aim at the church steeple, so the locals say, and place your drive through Miss Grainger's Bosoms (named for Miss Agnes Grainger). Still, at 455 yards anything avoiding trouble off the tee sets this up as a birdie opportunity if a player has a good sense of this large green.

The video:



"Corner of the Dyke" is one of the best spectator holes here, as fans lean on the boundary fence and are withing just yards of the players hitting their approaches. The Principal's Nose is just 220 yards or so to carry on this 418-yard hole.  The key bunker to avoid is Deacon Sime, about 290 off the tee.

The video:

Tiger Would Love To Play The Old Course In Reverse

Tiger revealed in his 144th Open Championship press conference he's still "right here in front of you" and insisted he's not done.

But more fun for golf junkies, he revealed that he would love to play the Old Course in reverse, as they do every April 1st.

Ewan Murray of the Guardian with the Tiger news from St. Andrews:

Of St Andrews, Woods added: “Obviously it’s the home of golf, we all know that. But to me it’s brilliant, how you can play it so many different ways. I’ve always wanted to play it backwards, one time before I die. I want to play from 1 to 17, 2 to 16, so forth and so on. I  think that would be just a blast because I can see how certain bunkers – why would they put that there? And then if you play it backwards, you see it. It’s very apparent. That’s totally in play. That one day would be a lot of fun to be able to do.”

Jeremy Glenn filed this excellent look at the reverse Old Course for GolfClubAtlas.com

Review: 2015 World Golf Hall Of Fame Induction Ceremony

The World Golf Hall of Fame moved its biennial ceremony to St. Andrews University in hopes of extending its worldwide reach and luring more former inductees to attend. They were successful on point one, not-so-fortunate on the latter.

A dizzying number of Hall of Famer's in town for The Open could not be bothered to make the grueling trek up North Street from the Old Course Hotel to welcome Laura Davies, David Graham, Mark O'Meara and A.W. Tillinghast into golf's most exclusive club, even though Arnold Palmer, Gary Player and Peter Thomson managed to come from long distances at less-than-spry ages to attend. Among the notables who are in the Hall but could not be bothered to slap on a coat and tie for 90 minutes and make the short commute: Tom Watson, Nick Faldo, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els and Nick Price. (Price was at  least enjoying a pint amongst the people at the Dunvegan along another Open Champion, Justin Leonard). Also unable to show some support for old pal "Marko" O'Meara was Tiger Woods. O'Meara's introductory induction to Dave Marr III, who handled the job with dignity.

David Graham spoke eloquently of his childhood and thanked a wide array of friends and family who supported his career, including his hero Thomson. John Hopkins introduced Tillinghast, whose induction was supported for a stupendously poor video anchored by thoughts on the man's work from PGA Tour players Harris English and David Toms. One of the most interesting lives lived in golf--a visual smorgasbord of art, letters, lore and architectural vision--was summed up by PGA Tour journeymen. Once again, a great life lived in golf is point missed on a breathtaking stage. Sad, but not unprecedented.

Meanwhile the videos supporting the players featured rich recollections of their lives and playing days, with archive highlight reels supporting those entering the WGHOF at historic Younger Hall. While Laura Davies was not able to make it in time from the U.S. Women's Open to accept, her induction by former LPGA Commissioner Charlie Meacham and backup video thank you sufficed, while Mark O'Meara finished off the night with a heartfelt speech that dutifully filled some of the time left open by Davies' absence.

The ceremony moved well, with nice acknowledgements of the former Hall members in attendance, only to be interrupted by the apparent necessity to introduce every golf administrator in attendance. That was time better spent celebrating the legacy of Younger Hall or golf's ties to St. Andrews inductees like Old Tom Morris and Allan Robertson. The St. Andrews portion of the evening was covered in a nice but small way by University Principal Louise Richardson in a speech before the live broadcast began. You may recall Ms. Richardson is the first St Andrews University Principal not invited to join the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews for reasons that could be chalked up to her being of a certain gender.

The evening offered peaks into why the World Golf Hall of Fame matters and a few too many glimpses into why the hall continues to struggle to ascend to a higher level.

And for those of you keeping score at home, the Hall members who made the trip (anyone who attended seeing a missing name please let me know):

Australia
David Graham
Peter Thomson

Germany
Bernhard Langer

Japan
Isao Aoki

New Zealand
Bob Charles

South Africa
Gary Player

Sweden
Annika Sorenstam

United States
Amy Alcott
Pat Bradley (accompanied by nephew Keegan Bradley)
Donna Caponi
Nancy Lopez
Carol Mann
Mark O'Meara
Arnold Palmer
Judy Rankin
Hollis Stacy
Curtis Strange

United Kingdom
Sir Michael Bonallack
Laura Davies (reception)
Tony Jacklin
Sandy Lyle
Ken Schofield

A few scenes from the evening:

Recap Of The Opens At St. Andrews

Doug Ferguson has put together capsules on all of the previous Open Championships at St. Andrews.

This was fun:

1876: In one of the most bizarre endings, Bob Martin and David Strath finished at 169. On the 17th, Strath's third shot hit a player in the group ahead that was putting out, keeping the ball from going on the road. The committee decided there would be a playoff in two days, enough time to review whether Strath should be disqualified for hitting to the hole while players were still on the green. Strath refused to take part in a playoff under such conditions, and Martin was declared the winner.

The Road Hole Was Looking So Much Better And Then...

You might have heard us talking about the Road hole on Morning Drive today and the most recognizeable hole in golf, while looking more like it's old self for the first 475 yards, still has some man-induced issues at the green.

With the advent of Pilates-infused distance increases over the last twenty years, the hole has seen a new tee, the pinch-point more defined to stop super-long drives and other attempts by man to use rough to keep the world's toughest and most historic par-4 as difficult as ever. (Nothing in scoring averages indicated it was getting "easy".) If you're playing the Golf Digest pick-the-hardest hole sweepstakes, it's a safe bet to rank #1 again this year.

As I noted in a post below, the R&A have gotten the setup just right off the tee. The fairway is wider and the left rough area that was so absurd in 2010 will allow for recovery shots. Don't be surprised if come Sunday someone gets too cute with an approach shot that would have been better played short.

In talking to John Huggan, R&A Chief Inspector Dawson covered the gamut talking about his vision for the 17th. He mentions how much more shallow the Road bunker once was, yet talks of the efforts to raise the surrounding volcano walls to collect balls, hold intimate conciertos and discourage a strategic play once afforded those willing to take an unusual path to the hole.

“The ground left of the bunker has also been remodelled so that more balls will feed into the sand. Going ‘long and left’ won’t be quite as easy as it has been in the past.”

I've put these images in black and white so you can see just how abrupt and out of proportion with the scale of the green the entire Road bunker has become.

And this is what is required to mow the Road hole ampitheater...

Just one of these years we'll get to come to The Open and find one of the world's greatest, strangest and most fascinating holes lacking any excess manipulation by man.

A Few First Impressions Of The Old Course 2015

The Old Course was getting some final touch-ups Sunday evening prior to The Open in the form of mowing, rolling and bunker prep. In a nutshell: the condition is perfect. As soft as Tiger made it out to be? No way. The ground had a nice firmness and the greens decent enough firmness and speed to not be confused with the TPC Deere Run, or even Gullane, last week's Scottish Open host.

What the spitting rain is doing today or the forecasted weather later in the week remains to be seen. Either way, it must be remembered that with such impeccable turf conditions the scoring will be excellent. Records may fall. The sun will still rise in the east.

Here are some random observations and images from a dreamy Sunday late summer evening stroll around the Old Course at St Andrews as the 2015 Open Championship arrives.


Looking down on the eighth, ninth and tenth holes:

The acute spur formation(s) lives! No. 4:

Hell bunker has a very flat floor again, designed presumably to send balls up to the face. Not idea but indicative of the efforts to make the course as difficult as possible in subtle ways:

Late evening rolling of the approaches. Imagine that! The approach taking priority. I wanted to cry tears of joy!

This next images is of the left rough at the Road hole. Refreshingly, it looks like a natural rough with a recovery shot very much possible. This was not the case at the last Open, where it was unnaturally dense and of the pitch-out variety. And this will not make the hole any easier, since we know anyone playing for the Road green will almost surely regret it.

The right side remains restored as far as it can go, rewarding the tee shot flirting with the boundary.

Less refreshing is the Road bunker, which has taken on a volcano shape designed to discourage the left hand shot used by many greats as sort of a back door way to 4's at the Road. The artificiality will offend the senses and on a place of so many random contours feels man made as a feature despite quality shaping work endeavoring to make the change feel natural.

The Home hole...

Tom Watson: Ego Got In The Way In 1984

Tom Watson, getting ready to say goodbye to easily the greatest Open Championship career in the modern era and perhaps ever, tells The Scotsman's Martin Dempster that ego got in the way of his winning at St. Andrews in 1984.

From Dempster's story, talking about the ill-fated approach:

“So I took the risky shot, the shot that would land on the green, a very narrow place to hit it. But I hit a lousy shot, pushing it 30 yards to the right.” It came to rest close to the wall, from where Watson was unable to get up and down. Given a mulligan, he’d have played the hole the way Nicklaus, a two-times St Andrews winner, had advised him to.

“Jack always said you go for the front of the green, never go beyond,” added Watson. “But I thought, ‘I can do this’. My ego got in the way. On top of that, I hit a bad shot. That’s how I assess it. But I don’t have any feeling of that being a missed opportunity. I have won more than my fair share. It just didn’t happen here at St Andrews.”

If you go to the 22:50 mark, you can see Watson's approach and the attempted recovery. I remember watching this live and the horror of it all from the American perspective, but have forgotten how unclear he was about his tee shot's resting place.

Peter Dawson Explains His Changes To The Old Course

Glad we got one thing cleared up before the start of The Open Championship: it was a Peter Dawson operation all along!

While Martin Hawtree was the architect of record for altering the Old Course to offset regulatory hesitancy, R&A Chief Inspector Peter Dawson lays out for Scotland on Sunday's John Huggan the details behind his changes to what is apparently his course.

No one needs to rehash the Friday news dump approach to the project or the matter of tinkering with greens and bunkers after over fifty years of no architectural tinkering on golf's most sacred grounds. Instead, just take in the totality of the remarks, which do not include a "we" reference that might indicate contributions from architect Hawtree or the manager's of the Old Course, the Links Trust. I, I, I, I...oh and many were envisioned while out walking the dog!  Take that, Old Tom!

There was also this curious remark...

“All of the changes are the result of much observation at the Open and the Dunhill Links Championship – and a few hundred Sunday morning dog walks of course. And yes, shortening the ball would be the equivalent of lengthening the course. But we, unfortunately, don’t have the luxury of being a single-issue organisation.”

Even if it's the single biggest issue binding all of the other vital issues the organization is trying to address with sustainability, growth and the future?

Tiger Shocked To Find Old Course Soft And Slow

Bob Harig of ESPN.com on Tiger's first practice round at the 2015 Open Championship, his first appearance there since 2010.

From Harig's story:

"I was shocked," Woods said. "I had seen photos of it a month ago. It was bone dry. It looked like it was going to be one of those dust bowls again; hard, fast, like the years I've played St. Andrews. It's changed. They got big rain and a lot of sun. It's totally changed.

"I'm going to have to do a little bit of feel around the greens, my putting. I wasn't expecting the firmness to be that soft. We made ball marks on the greens. I don't ever remember making ball marks around this place."